The oil crash has been rough on political leaders, but not Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall. If opinion polls prove accurate, the two-term premier and his Saskatchewan Party are sailing toward another solid majority within the April 4 provincial election.
Welcome to Estevan: The energy boom town that’s now the poster child for Saskatchewan’s decline
Nowhere in Saskatchewan has the slowdown in the economy – the transition from boom to bust – been more pronounced or rapid. Read on
Wall, 50, remains wildly popular despite his oil-producing province’s economic slowdown and deteriorating government finances. Similar conditions led to the defeat last year of conservative, oil-industry supportive governments in Alberta and in Ottawa and are even poking a hole in Wall’s narrative that “Sask. Party times are great times” – as Regina Leader-Post columnist Murray Mandryk recently put it.
“It is pretty interesting to watch how Mr. Wall’s popularity continues to defy the odds,” said Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, that has done polling in the province. After eight years in power, “it hasn’t diminished. He seems to have a real knack to be centered on things that the folks in Saskatchewan see as priorities, instead of being sidetracked on pet projects – In terms of his election, it’s virtually guaranteed.”
He seems to have a genuine knack to be centered on things that the people in Saskatchewan see as priorities
A poll through the public research firm conducted for Postmedia News Feb. 11 of just one,477 Saskatchewan residents shows 49 per cent of respondents said they’d vote for the Saskatchewan Party, 28 percent said they would prefer the NDP C headed by Cam Broten – and six percent said their ballot visits the Liberals; 14 per cent were undecided.
“We have got a party and a leader in Saskatchewan that has a very different profile in the electorate’s eyes compared to federal Conservatives or even the Alberta Conservatives,” said University of Saskatchewan political science professor Joseph Garcea. “A lot is due to the continued high degree of confidence and respect for that premier’s management of the economy, and public management generally.”
Wall’s championing of problems with national importance – for example his defence of pipelines as well as the oil economy – is also playing well at home, Garcea said.
“That resonates quite strongly having a substantial proportion of people,” Garcea said. “(Wall) doesn’t suffer the standard legitimacy crisis that perhaps Mr. Harper and (former Alberta Premier Jim) Prentice wound up suffering.”
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Since the election of Alberta’s provincial NDP and federal Liberal governments, Wall has indeed increased as chief defender of Western Canada’s resource economy, a role which has endeared him to Alberta’s right and that reflects frustration with other unmoved politicians.
In recent years days alone, he’s: warned against a federal carbon tax, that they said would “kneecap” an already struggling economy; asked for $156 million from the authorities to clean up old wells within the province to put unemployed energy industry workers to work; criticized the possibility federal bailout of Bombardier Inc., noting when Ottawa goes through by using it, it should also help Western Canada by approving TransCanada Corp.’s Energy East pipeline project.
“Part of his popularity is the fact that he has this national profile, and the man is among only a few voices in Western Canada – at least now – and historically has been among the stronger ones, that will be championing oil and pipelines and anti-carbon tax,” said Maggi. However, “as time goes on, and there is more acceptance of climate change, he needs to be more careful of people’s perceptions. Increasingly more of our polling along with other research sees that few individuals now deny global warming and it is impact, so he needs to be careful to stay on the side of facts. And so far he’s managed to do this.”
That’s where Alberta’s Notley and Bc Premier Christy Clark have placed their brains, while distancing themselves in the oil economy.
In Alberta, Notley is paying a higher price. A Feb. 17 Angus Reid Institute (ARI) analysis shows Notley’s NDP has fallen to 3rd devote terms of popular support, and just one-third of Albertans believe Notley does a good job, down 45 percent in December. Clark’s approval rating is even lower – down three points from last quarter to 31 per cent, though B.C.’s economy is strong.
In contrast, Wall has got the approval from the most of individuals Saskatchewan (62 per cent), unchanged since last quarter, making them the most-approved-of premier in the united states.
Duane Bratt, chair of the department of policy studies at Mount Royal University in Calgary, said the oil crash contributed to Prentice’s defeat and is hurting Notley even more.
She “came in when times were bad and they have gotten worse under her watch,” he explained. “People don’t have memories of good times in Alberta under Rachel Notley. There were not good times because she’s so new.”
“With Brad Wall, there have been plenty of happy times, almost a decade of excellent times in Saskatchewan,” Bratt said. “(Under Wall) it had been the optimum time to stay in Saskatchewan probably to the 1910, 1920s. He’s that reservoir of excellent will. He is also a brilliant politician. He has been able to brand himself as Mr. Saskatchewan effectively.”
To be sure, the oil price collapse is not as damaging to Saskatchewan as it has been for Alberta. The Saskatchewan economy is much more diversified, a sales tax buttresses government revenue, and it is projected deficit is not as bad as Alberta’s. Two weeks ago, Wall predicted a modest deficit this fiscal year and then, and a return to balance in 2017-18 if he’s re-elected.
The Saskatchewan election campaign has yet to shift to high gear, along with a perfect storm could yet materialize to finish Wall’s reign. So far, Garcea said, “nobody appears to believe that that storm will develop.” Meanwhile, Wall’s hands on handling from the oil downturn have struck the best tone.
ccattaneo@nationalpost.com
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