The Liberal government sure is talking the discuss the overarching challenge of climate change. The question for Canadians is what the effects will be once it starts walking the walk. Well, keep your wallets, because the answer might be grim: income and corporate tax hikes, consumer “fees,” intrusive regulations, extravagant review processes and massive government expenditures. The actions of other countries are running counter to progress within the combat global warming and our contribution is a rounding error, if even that.
For Canada to meet its CO2 targets this decade could be equal to closing over half our energy industry
Over 380 Canadian politicians and bureaucrats attended the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) in Paris, more than China, triple the U.S. and almost quadruple the U.K.’s team, according to United Nations figures. The not-yet published costs included two round trips through the premier of Ontario, who flew back to Toronto for Question Period. As a whole 40,000 delegates, scientists, journalists, ENGOs along with other participants were on hand to supply valuable input or simply to take notice of the historic event. Why all those people needed to be within the Town of Light isn’t clear. Nor are we calculated the resultant rise in CO2 emissions, although apparently one more 9,000 tons were emitted from hotels alone.
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Stirring and frequently apocalyptic rhetoric intensified the suspense in regards to a possible failure to arrive at a contract. Then, in a glorious moment, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius proclaimed a triumphant conclusion. Humanity was saved! If only it were so. The hard fact is that, while each country must report its GHG emissions, the total amount through which it must reduce them is not mandated. Nor is there a commitment to actually reduce them, or penalties when they don’t. Because the Paris Agreement is actually aspirational, climate scientist and activist James Hansen called it a total fraud. But that doesn’t mean the agreement is without consequences, and that’s why Canadians must be wary.
Honouring even a few of the voluntary pledges could lead to significant economic hardship. For instance, for Canada to meet its targets this decade would be the same as closing over half of our energy industry. The effects could be more acute for poorer countries, in which a billion individuals have no electricity and another 1.25 billion have only insecure use of it. Without legally binding de-carbonization caps, it is highly unlikely that developing countries will or perhaps should take action that would compromise growth and slow down the eradication of grinding poverty in the here and now.
China and India, the earth’s first- and third-ranking emitters, demanded an enormous wealth change in at least US$100 billion annually from developed to developing countries for our historical contribution to GHG emissions. Yet it’s impossible that will happen. As to the U.S., so great continues to be the increase in its oil shale production that, immediately after COP21, it lifted a ban on domestic oil exports for the first time in 40 years. The U.K. recently cut renewable energy subsidies, allowed fracking under national parks and is likely to renew more offshore gas and oil exploration licenses. And to put a stake in the heart of the CO2 reduction dream, some 2,400 coal-fired power stations are planned or being built all over the world, which is a serious problem since coal represents about one-quarter to one-third of worldwide emissions.
We need to avoid ideological decisions and rely on science and economics. That means not supporting uneconomic renewables, that have proved disastrous in Ontario, driving up energy prices although not reducing GHG emissions. Rather, the best expect a breakthrough is R&D centered on green innovation that would lessen the cost of renewables. And please, don’t even think about a cap-and-trade scheme that will require payments of billions to Russian oligarchs to acquire feel-good pieces of paper that would not really require emission reductions through the recipients of our senseless beneficence.
Canadians want governments to complete their part in an important global challenge. But at what cost and to what end? How the government answers those questions will impact significantly on our quality lifestyle and security for years to come.
Joe Oliver is former Minister of Finance and former Minister of Natural Resources.
